This past May saw Hezbollah's second coup attempt in as many years. The first was after the 2006 war, when Hezbollah took to the streets with the goal of bringing down the Siniora government. Although this second attempt was an outright military operation, neither attempts has been successful. Contrary to the prevailing view, this episode was not a complete military route by Hezbollah nor was the ensuing accord in Doha a political capitulation by the March 14 parliamentary majority in the face of military defeat...

The January 31 cover of The Economist asked an ominous question, “Has Iran Won?” The question certainly has merit. The release of the National Intelligence Estimate (NIE), which declared that “Iran halted its military program to develop nuclear weapons in 2003,” delivered an unconscionable blow to the United States’ case against Iran. However, there may be a silver lining. The NIE report now gives the US and Europe a chance to re-think how they define and combat the Iranian challenge, which to date has been shortsighted in both scope and reach. The Iran debate should not merely about the Islamic Republic’s pursuit of nuclear sophistication, but extend to its support of global terrorism, its egregious human rights record, the threat it poses to the sovereignty of other nations, and its hegemonic ambitions.

During his recent visit to Cairo, French President Nicholas Sarkozy announced that France would suspend all diplomatic contacts with Syria, due to Syria’s role in the current Lebanese presidential crisis. This announcement followed months of French efforts to persuade Syrian President, Bashar el Assad, to change course in the region in exchange for Western engagement. It also coincided with the visit to Damascus by two US officials – Republican Senator Arlen Specter and Democratic Congressman, Patrick Kennedy – who reportedly conveyed to Assad a message from Israeli Prime Minister, Ehud Olmert, sounding out Damascus for possible talks. Indeed, Syria’s low-level attendance at the Annapolis conference fueled speculations about the prospect of resurrecting the Syrian-Israeli track.

With the escalating political crisis facing Lebanon, and the impasse over the election of a new President, Hezbollah is currently the main stumbling block towards resolving the crisis. Understanding its nature offers a better appraisal of the current crisis...

The monthly meeting of EU foreign ministers was expected this week to discuss French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner’s proposal that the EU adopt a round of tougher sanctions against Iran, even before a consensus on a third UN Security Council resolution is found. Despite France’s activism and signals that other European countries are prepared to contemplate this step, objections from Austria, Germany and Italy meant that EU ministers for the time being merely agreed “that the EU will consider what additional measures it might take in order to support the UN process and the shared objectives of the international community, and invited the relevant Council bodies to provide timely”. However, this is not the last word on sanctions. British Foreign Secretary David Milband told reporters after the EU’s meeting Monday that “There’s a very strong view that the diplomatic track was the right track but it had to have teeth.”

For several months now, there has been widespread speculation that the Middle East is heading towards what has been described as a ‘hot summer’. Indeed, both President George W. Bush and the U.S. Forces Commander in Iraq, General Petraeus, have been on the record predicting an escalation in Iraq’s military and security situation in in the lead-up to the September deadline set for the reassessment of the situation in that country.

The G8 summit’s focus on energy security reflects a common concern, across the Atlantic. But beyond similar preoccupation with global warming and high oil prices, much remains to be agreed upon, especially when it comes to the Middle East – the world’s main supplier of oil and a significant supplier of gas. It is no exaggeration to say that transatlantic views of energy security are affected by the same tensions characterizing, four years after the invasion of Iraq, transatlantic diplomacy on the Middle East. As Washington grapples with the emerging challenge represented by a nuclear-armed Iran – a major oil producer in a strategic location – it looks as though the potential for diplomatic differences remains high and the chances for a united front are commensurately low. However, a sense of a new chapter offered by the election of President Sarkozy in France and the elevation of Gordon Brown to Prime Minister in Britain suggests a chance of better prospects.

This week European and U.S. leaders met for a one-day EU-US summit in Washington.  While disagreements remain between these key allies in several areas, particularly climate control, the parties highlighted their coordinated efforts to press Iran to suspend its uranium enrichment program as a sign of strong ties. The most promising aspect of this coordinated strategy to deal with Iran is a multilateral, graduated and targeted sanctions’ regime that is already showing signs of success.  For it to be fully successful, however, international consensus on the next round of sanctions – due May 23 – must be stronger still; the sanctions must have sharper teeth; and they must be accompanied by outreach to the private sector...

At the end of an inconclusive military confrontation both contenders usually claim victory. Last summer’s conflict between Israel and Hezbollah is no exception. Hezbollah celebrated its ability to contain IDF forces, inflict casualties and continue to rain rockets on Israel. Similarly, Israel’s government expressed satisfaction for its military and political achievements, though Israel’s Prime minister, Ehud Olmert, was cautious not to sound triumphant. This caution reflected a feeling, which grew over the following months, that Israel suffered some sort of strategic defeat. Domestically, a large sway of public opinion did not view the war in the North as a victory. Regionally, many Arab regimes and other non-state actors shared this assessment. Regardless, Hezbollah suffered a substantial military setback, while Israel achieved major strategic gains...